Recession Red Flags – All 5 Flashing Danger
All five dependable recessionary red flags are indicating that we could be in a recession soon.
Bear Market Persists - Be Cautious
A handful of stocks are responsible for the YTD S&P 500 return, the broad market remains in a bear trend.
Stock Market Loses -34% During a Recession, On Average
The S&P 500 has lost an average of -34.9% during the last 14 recessions, going back to the 1920s.
Bear Market Halftime?
Bear markets coincident with bubble valuations and inflation tend to take years to work themselves out.
Stocks Flat for Four Years
The average stock in the United States has been flat over the past four years.
Broadly Diversifed Index of US Stocks Flat Between 1998 and 2022
Looking at the Value Line Geometric Average one could argue that U.S. stocks have struggled to provide returns.
Don’t Fight the Fed - a Good Stepping off Point
As long as the Fed is raising interest rates stock market rallies will fail at trend.
Don’t Fight The Fed, Bear Market Rally is an Opportunity to Reduce Risk
Rallies in a Bear Trend are Common, the Market is in a Bear Trend.
Recession, Stagflation, and Falling Stock Prices
Two quarters of negative GDP growth in a row is the standard definition of a recession.
Bear Trend Likely to Continue?!
Stock markets broadly are in a bear trend, exhibiting lower highs and lower lows.
Global Stock Market Breakdown
Stock markets are breaking down globally, entering bear trends.
Coming Recession?
GDP is crashing and the bond market’s yield curve is falling fast, historically two recession signals.
Wealth Shield Update - Stop Out to Cash
Our rules based trailing stop discipline has shifted the majority of our allocations to cash and bonds.
Markets Losing Momentum in the midst of an Epic Bubble and a Halt to the Printing Press?
As the markets lose the support of the printing press it is important to pay attention to a possible break in trend and to a possible recession.
HIGHCROFT WEALTH SHIELD PROTECTS ACCOUNT VALUES
Highcroft’s Wealth Shield discipline helps to prevent capital losses.
How Far Do Earnings Typically Fall in Recessions?
Drops of 20% or more during recessions are not uncommon.
Earnings Plummet Almost -50% During a Bear Market
Bear Markets bring both a dramatic drop in corporate profits and stock prices.
HIGHCROFT WEALTH SHIELD PROTECTS CAPITAL Q1 2020
While the stock market has crashed our investment accounts have not.
BEAR MARKET RALLIES
Some of the quickest and largest stock market rallies are during bear markets.